A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather indicates that the 2026 El Niño could be the strongest in 150 years, with potential temperature spikes and significant economic impacts.The phenomenon, characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, is projected to peak at 3.6°C above normal levels in the Niño 3.4 region, surpassing the previous record set in 2015-2016 by 0.8°C.This extreme El Niño could lead to global temperature increases of up to 1.7°C above preindustrial levels by 2027, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold considered relatively safe.Economic losses could reach $10 trillion by 2032 due to extreme weather events.

The analysis compares 667 simulations with historical data, noting the event's rapid intensification compared to past super El Niños like 1997-1998.Immediate impacts include disrupted fisheries in the eastern Pacific and increased risk of extreme weather globally.

Researchers warn that while models predict severe consequences, the accuracy of these projections remains uncertain due to the lack of historical analogues.