A political analysis published by The Bulwark and reported by Raw Story argues that Secretary of State Marco Rubio currently appears to have a stronger standing with President Donald Trump than Vice President JD Vance as speculation grows about potential Republican leadership and presidential succession in 2028.According to editor Jonathan V.Last, recent developments surrounding U.S.policy toward Iran have contributed to a shift in Trump's perception of the two officials.Last contends that Trump has become increasingly dissatisfied with Vance following unsuccessful negotiations involving Iran.

He argues that Vance was placed in a difficult position by being tasked with negotiations under unfavorable circumstances, while media reports and political leaks suggested that Trump questioned Vance's influence and effectiveness.

In contrast, Rubio is described as having benefited politically despite previously holding positions that Last characterizes as incorrect regarding the Iran conflict.

The analysis suggests that Vance's main political mistake was attempting to shape or challenge the prevailing direction of the administration rather than adapting to Trump's views.Last compares this dynamic to authoritarian political systems where loyalty to leadership often outweighs policy accuracy.

He further argues that if conditions involving Iran worsen, Trump may increasingly associate those problems with Vance's earlier objections and warnings.

The article is largely opinion-based and focuses on internal political dynamics within Trump's administration rather than presenting new factual evidence about official policy decisions.

It highlights perceived rivalries between senior administration figures and discusses how their standing with the president may influence future Republican Party leadership contests.