German economist Joachim Klement, who has successfully predicted the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups, believes the Netherlands will win the 2026 tournament.

Klement first created his forecasting model before the 2014 World Cup as a humorous experiment to show that economists often think they can predict anything.Unexpectedly, his model correctly predicted Germany’s victory in Brazil, followed by France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.

For the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, Klement’s model forecasts that the Netherlands will defeat Portugal in the final.

Despite the Dutch side never having won a World Cup and only being ranked seventh by FIFA, the economist says his simulations repeatedly placed them at the top.He admitted being surprised by the result because the Netherlands face a difficult path through the knockout stages.

Klement’s econometric model considers five major factors: GDP per capita, population size, climate conditions, FIFA ranking points and host-nation advantage.

However, he stressed that luck remains a major influence in football, estimating that around 50 per cent of a match outcome is determined by unpredictable factors.The article also discusses Australia’s prospects at the tournament.Klement predicts the Socceroos will progress from the group stage but will likely be eliminated by Belgium in the knockout rounds.

Although his predictions have gained international attention and popularity, especially in the Netherlands, Klement cautions football fans against treating his model as certain.He says his previous success may simply be an unusual streak rather than proof of a perfect forecasting system.