OPEC+ announced that seven of its member countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have agreed to increase their combined oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day beginning in August 2026.

The decision follows a gradual improvement in conditions after the disruption to oil exports caused by conflict in the Middle East and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.During the conflict, several Gulf producers significantly reduced output as maritime traffic through the strategic waterway slowed dramatically.

A memorandum of understanding signed between Tehran and Washington on June 17 helped restore shipping activity, leading to a decline in oil prices toward pre-conflict levels.

Analysts noted that although tanker traffic has recovered, much of the oil currently being exported had already been stored, and restarting suspended production requires time.Market observers expect production and exports to improve steadily through July, with a more noticeable recovery anticipated in August.

Looking ahead, energy analysts believe the global oil market could move into surplus next year as production normalizes and inventories are replenished.That situation may place downward pressure on oil prices.

OPEC+ also faces internal challenges after the United Arab Emirates left the group earlier in 2026, while members such as Iraq are seeking higher production quotas to compensate for wartime losses.However, analysts suggest Iraq's request is unlikely to be addressed immediately because current production remains below pre-conflict levels.

Instead, the issue is expected to be considered during OPEC+'s scheduled 2027 production capacity review, when member baselines and future quotas will be reassessed.