Texas barbecue restaurants are facing significant financial pressure as beef prices reach historic highs and cattle supplies fall to a 75-year low, according to U.S.Department of Agriculture data cited in a recent report.

The situation has led to the closure of several establishments, including Kirby's BBQ in New Caney and Brett's BBQ Shop in Katy, with industry leaders warning that more shutdowns may follow.

Economists attribute the surge in beef prices to multiple converging factors, including prolonged drought conditions that have reduced grazing land, feed supply disruptions, and increased production costs.

One additional factor cited is higher fuel and fertilizer prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving the Iran war, which have raised operating expenses for ranchers across the United States.

Experts note that the shrinking cattle supply has created a structural imbalance in the beef market, pushing prices upward and placing pressure on restaurants that rely heavily on brisket and other beef cuts.

According to industry representatives, the cost of brisket for a single sandwich has risen dramatically over the past four years, increasing from roughly 29 cents to nearly $6 before accounting for labor, ingredients, and additional operating costs such as payment processing fees.Restaurant owners report that brisket alone can account for nearly half of monthly food expenses in barbecue businesses.

The Texas Restaurant Association and other industry voices warn that these cost increases are making traditional barbecue operations increasingly unsustainable.

Ground beef prices at grocery stores have also risen by nearly 15 percent year over year, further illustrating broader inflationary pressure in the beef supply chain.Economists suggest that meaningful relief may take years, as rebuilding cattle herds is a slow process compared to other agricultural sectors.As a result, many Texas barbecue businesses are struggling to adapt to rising costs and uncertain market conditions.