A May 2026 rapid assessment by Tanzania’s National Planning Commission (NPC), in collaboration with UNDP, has concluded that the ongoing Gulf crisis is creating significant economic pressure across key sectors of the country.The report identifies energy, food security, transport and logistics, tourism, and the Government budget as the most exposed areas.

It highlights that fuel prices in Dar es Salaam have risen sharply between January and May 2026, with increases of up to 69% for kerosene and over 55% for diesel, largely driven by global oil market disruptions and rising shipping costs.This has already led to higher transport and production costs across the economy.

In the food sector, although Tanzania remains above 100% food self-sufficiency, the report warns that households are still vulnerable due to rising fertilizer prices, transport costs, and reduced affordability, which could affect agricultural output in the upcoming planting season.

The transport and logistics sector is also under strain, with higher freight costs, shipping insurance premiums, and potential disruptions in air connectivity affecting trade and tourism flows.

Tourism, which contributes about 19% of GDP, faces risks from reduced international travel and higher ticket prices, although the report also notes opportunities to position Tanzania as a stable destination.

On public finances, the assessment warns of possible customs revenue shortfalls and rising fuel subsidy pressures that could strain the national budget, despite existing buffers such as foreign reserves and natural gas resources.

The report recommends targeted household support, tighter monitoring of prices and supply chains, and accelerated investment in domestic energy resources such as gas and LNG to strengthen long-term resilience.