The article examines the current state and future relevance of the Quad — the strategic grouping of the United States, Australia, Japan and India — amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and the second Trump administration.

It argues that while political leadership choices (agency) have influenced the group’s momentum, deeper structural forces in the Indo-Pacific continue to sustain its importance.A key theme is the distinction between agency and structure in international relations.

US President Donald Trump’s second term has seen significant policy shifts, including strained alliances and domestic constraints from the judiciary and Congress, which limit unilateral executive action.

In foreign policy, while Trump has altered the tone of US engagement with allies, structural realities such as China’s military expansion, maritime assertiveness, and economic influence remain dominant drivers shaping regional strategy.The Quad has experienced setbacks, including the absence of a leaders’ summit since 2024 and growing concerns about declining momentum.

Tensions in US–India relations, driven by immigration policy, tariffs, disagreements over Russian oil purchases, and diplomatic friction, have further complicated coordination.

However, the grouping continues to function at ministerial level, with recent meetings in New Delhi focusing on critical minerals, cybersecurity, maritime cooperation, and infrastructure projects such as a port in Fiji.

Despite Chinese criticism of the Quad as an exclusionary bloc, member states continue to deepen cooperation through joint military exercises, disaster response, and regional security initiatives.

Public polling across member countries indicates moderate to strong support for the Quad, including interest in it evolving into a more formal alliance.

The article concludes that although political frictions may slow its progress, structural pressures in the Indo-Pacific mean the Quad is likely to remain a significant regional mechanism for balancing China’s influence.