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According to a Wall Street Journal report cited by Raw Story, White House lawyers have been investigating whether administration officials or people with access to sensitive government information may have profited from prediction market wagers related to U.S.foreign policy.
The concern arose after several anonymous Polymarket accounts correctly predicted that President Donald Trump and Iran would reach an initial ceasefire agreement before the end of April.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that three of those anonymous accounts earned more than $600,000 from the successful wagers, prompting internal concern that the bets may have been based on nonpublic information rather than speculation.
The report states that attorneys in the White House Counsel's Office questioned staff members in an effort to determine who might have placed the bets.
However, investigators reportedly concluded that identifying the individuals would be extremely difficult because Polymarket allows users to create anonymous accounts.
The article also notes that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees certain aspects of prediction markets, has requested information from both Polymarket and Kalshi regarding wagers connected to political and military events.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC is examining allegations that Representative Anna Paulina Luna and conservative influencer Rogan O'Handley may have shared insider information related to Trump's 2024 vice presidential selection.O'Handley denied any wrongdoing or knowledge of an investigation, while Luna dismissed the allegations, joking that she was not telepathic.
The reported investigations highlight growing regulatory and ethical concerns about whether prediction markets could be exploited by individuals with privileged access to government information.
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