Legal Analyst Says Revised DOJ Indictment Against SPLC Still Fails to Address Core Fraud Allegations
Federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York have charged Google employee Michele Spagnuolo with wire fraud, commodities fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential internal Google search data to profit from prediction market bets on Polymarket.
According to the complaint, Spagnuolo worked as a staff information security engineer and had access to internal tools containing nonpublic “Year in Search” information before it was officially released by Google.
Authorities allege that Spagnuolo used this insider knowledge to place successful bets on prediction contracts tied to Google's annual search rankings for 2025.One of the most notable bets involved correctly predicting that singer d4vd would become Google's most searched person of the year.
Prosecutors claim that after Google publicly released its Year in Search results in December 2025, an account identified as “AlphaRaccoon” earned approximately $1.2 million from these trades.
The complaint also states that the same account accurately predicted outcomes related to other search-based contracts, including whether politician Zohran Mamdani would rank among the top five most searched individuals and whether the television series Squid Game would become the most searched TV show.Investigators allege these trades were based on material nonpublic information improperly obtained through Spagnuolo’s position at Google.
In addition to the criminal case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a parallel civil complaint accusing him of insider trading and misuse of confidential information.
The case has sparked discussion online about the regulation of prediction markets, insider trading enforcement, and the broader ethics of using privileged corporate data for financial gain.
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