A new NBC News national poll has raised concerns for Republicans as the 2026 U.S.midterm elections approach, showing Democrats with a modest but notable advantage in voter preference for control of Congress.

The survey, which included responses from 3,000 adults across different demographics and party affiliations, found that 49% of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, compared to 44% who favored Republican control, while 7% remained undecided.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who helped conduct the poll, described the results as “rocky numbers for Republicans,” though he emphasized they were not catastrophic.The data also revealed troubling trends for the GOP among key voting groups.

Independent voters favored Democrats by a 12-point margin, and both Black and Hispanic voters, as well as voters under the age of 50, leaned more heavily toward Democrats—groups that had previously contributed to Republican gains in the 2024 election cycle.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates noted that Democrats face a relatively lower bar to regain control of the House, needing only a net gain of three seats, compared to the larger swings seen in previous midterm cycles such as 2018.He argued that Democrats remain well positioned despite redistricting challenges.The poll also highlighted shifts in presidential approval among Republicans.

While President Donald Trump continues to maintain strong support within his party, with 82% approval among Republicans, that figure has declined from 88% in March.The share of Republicans who strongly approve also dropped from 63% to 58%.Despite this softening, GOP support for Trump remains broadly stable.

Overall, the poll suggests a competitive political environment heading into the midterms, with Democrats holding a slight advantage in congressional preference while Republicans retain solid but somewhat weakening internal cohesion.