A new poll from the Texas Public Opinion Research group suggests a competitive U.S.Senate race in Texas, with Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 43%.

The results indicate that Talarico is nearing the critical 50% threshold, meaning Paxton would need to win a significant share of undecided voters to close the gap.

The poll also highlights shifting dynamics within the Republican electorate, including notable defections among voters who previously supported GOP Senator John Cornyn in a recent runoff election.According to the data, a portion of these voters are now leaning toward Talarico, while others remain undecided or still back Paxton.A key factor influencing voter sentiment appears to be Paxton’s controversial political and legal history.

The article cites his past criminal indictment, impeachment proceedings, and allegations related to personal misconduct as issues shaping perceptions among voters.

Among Cornyn supporters who are considering switching to Talarico, more than half reportedly cite concerns about Paxton’s alleged corruption or criminal behavior.

The poll also reflects broader electoral concerns for Republicans, particularly among Latino voters in Texas, where Talarico is reportedly leading by a wide margin in a separate survey.

Analysts suggest that if such trends hold, the race could become extremely costly for Republicans, potentially requiring hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign spending to maintain control of the seat.Political observers note that such resource allocation could have downstream effects on other competitive races nationwide.Overall, the polling indicates an unexpectedly competitive Senate contest in a state long considered reliably Republican at the federal level.