Researchers at the University of Oxford have developed a new clinical calculator designed to estimate an individual’s risk of developing serious muscle disorders from statin medications.

Statins are widely prescribed drugs used to lower cholesterol and reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, but concerns about potential muscle-related side effects often discourage patients from starting or continuing treatment.

The new tool, published in The Lancet Digital Health, analyzes 22 routinely collected health factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, existing medical conditions, prior muscle problems, vitamin D levels, and medication use to estimate risk over one, five, and ten years.Using data from more than 5.

6 million people across England, researchers built and validated the model to ensure accuracy in predicting rare but serious muscle disorders that can require hospitalization or, in extreme cases, lead to death.

Their findings suggest that over 98% of individuals eligible for statins are at very low risk of these severe complications, indicating that fears about serious muscle side effects may be overstated for most patients.

At the same time, the study identified a significant treatment gap, noting that more than 60% of eligible patients are not currently taking statins despite potentially high cardiovascular risk.

The researchers propose that the calculator be used alongside existing cardiovascular risk tools to help clinicians and patients make more informed, personalized decisions about whether to begin or continue statin therapy.

By providing individualized estimates of both benefits and risks, the tool aims to improve communication, reduce unnecessary concern about rare side effects, and support better prevention of heart attacks and strokes through evidence-based treatment decisions.