The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its first winter outlook for 2026, signalling that much of Australia could face a warmer and drier season due to the likely development of El Niño.Despite heavy rainfall in parts of eastern NSW and South Australia during May, the BoM warns that these wet conditions are likely temporary.

Across southern and eastern regions, rainfall between June and August is expected to be below average, with a 60–80% chance of drier-than-normal conditions.Conversely, parts of western Tasmania may see above-average rainfall.

Daytime and overnight temperatures are projected to be above average for most of the country, with the highest likelihood of warmer conditions in Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, southern South Australia, and western Western Australia.

Sea surface temperatures around Australia are also forecast to be warmer than usual, particularly in the Tasman Sea, increasing the potential for intense weather systems if conditions align.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but early signs point to a transition to El Niño during winter, typically bringing hotter, drier conditions nationally.While some northern areas may see rainfall above seasonal norms, this coincides with their dry season, making significant impacts unlikely.Overall, Australians should prepare for a winter that is notably warmer and drier than usual in many regions, even after recent heavy rains.