The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast for the southwest monsoon season, stating that India is likely to receive about 90% of the long-period average rainfall between June and September.This is a downward revision from its earlier April estimate of 92%.

According to the IMD, this updated projection indicates that the country could experience below-normal rainfall conditions for the upcoming monsoon season.

The long-period average refers to the average rainfall recorded over the monsoon months based on data from the past 50 years, which is used as a benchmark for seasonal predictions.The IMD has further explained that rainfall distribution will not be uniform across regions.

While northeast India is expected to receive near-normal monsoon rains, central India, the southern peninsular region, and northwestern parts of the country are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.Additionally, rainfall in June, which marks the onset phase of the monsoon, is also projected to remain below normal levels.Despite the revised downward forecast, the southwest monsoon is continuing its gradual progress across the Indian subcontinent.

The IMD noted that the monsoon system is advancing over parts of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and the Andaman Sea, with favourable atmospheric conditions supporting further movement into peninsular and northeastern India in the coming days.Over the next week, the monsoon is expected to spread more widely across southern India, northeast regions, and parts of central Bay of Bengal.This forecast is significant as monsoon rainfall plays a crucial role in India’s agriculture, water resources, and overall rural economy.