A recent study published in the journal One Earth calls for a major rethink of the climate and biodiversity models that shape global environmental policies.

Led by researchers including Laura Pereira from the Earth Commission, the paper highlights how many current scenarios are too focused on technological solutions without addressing deeper issues like inequality, power structures and the unique realities of the Global South and Indigenous communities.

These models often assume that economic systems, governance and social norms will stay largely the same, even as the world tries to cut emissions rapidly and protect nature.Scientists argue this approach is too narrow for the multiple crises we face, including climate change, biodiversity loss and growing inequality.

Africa, in particular, lacks its own integrated assessment model, which limits how well global projections capture local challenges like poverty and development needs.

The researchers propose a Global South-led scenarios secretariat and new transformative scenarios developed together with Indigenous peoples and local communities.Instead of treating these groups only as vulnerable, their knowledge should help guide future pathways.

The study also critiques narrow tech-focused visions from some billionaires and pushes for alternative economic thinking, such as post-growth models that prioritise wellbeing and equity over endless expansion.This is crucial for achieving the 1.5°C target, biodiversity goals and the Sustainable Development Goals in a fair way.Overall, the paper stresses the need for diverse, inclusive futures that move beyond business-as-usual approaches to inspire real change.